The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST. Chance of showers. The Bureau of Meteorology operates a 7-day Global wave model called Auswave. But in late Fall 2022 trades started fading a by early 22023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. The morning is looking fairly light with just a touch of south wind, followed by a light onshore wind in the afternoon. Onshores are expected this afternoon to 15 mph. This means no cool water was at depth. Summer - Waist to chest high. South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height, LONG-TERM FORECAST http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/. Small North Gulf Gale St. George CA out 10 nm Wind waves 3 ft building to Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/30) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Overview MetEye forecast wind and wave maps for Sydney waters Local & coastal waters forecasts via clickable map MetEye forecast wind and wave maps Observations Latest weather for the Sydney area Live wind map for New South Wales Latest coastal weather Coastal observations via clickable map Latest weather graphs via clickable map Radar Viewer Victoria A weak Kelvin Wave is pushing east. Water temperatures are a warm 25 to 27C or 77 to 81F year-round. Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 1.5 . There no sign of La Nina on the oceans surface and everything is now looking like El Nino. And Westerly Winds are fully established filling the KWGA and forecast filling the Pacific over the next month. The South Shore had sets at waist high and lined up and clean with decent form. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/17 indicates a Kelvin Wave pushing east with 2-3 degs warm anomalies with its eastern edge at 95W with only a tiny pocket of cool anomalies at -3 degs C 25 meters down and pushing to the surface at 95W while rapidly fading in coverage. On Thurs AM (4/27) a gale started building just over and just off the Kuril Islands producing 45 kt west winds and seas building from 20 ft at 44N 156E aimed east. Alternatively, visit our basic swell maps of Pacific-Ocean where each view becomes a separate image. Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean): veering to W in the eveningbacking to SW after midnight. DeepSwell offers free surf reports and long-range forecasts including swell, tide, wind and weather reports updated multiple times daily. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 4 ft at 8 seconds building to SW 6 ft at 12 seconds after midnight. 10 to 12 ft at 13 secondssubsiding to 9 ft at 12 seconds in The easing trend continues. Fetch raced northeast in the evening at 35-40 kts with seas 24 ft at 52N 154W aimed east. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Sunday the 7th, looks about chest max at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots. Sea temperatures vary from north to south, though not by much, with a high and low peaks of 23-29C or 73-84F. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. Level up to Premium to unlock this and other useful features: Long-range forecasts are available to DeepSwell Premium members. Tuesday the 9th, so far, looks smaller, about waist high everywhere. Offshore waters forecasts are subdivided by zone, each identified by text description and a Universal Generic Code (UGC). The south swell will slowly ease Sunday the 8th and into the workweek. . 117-128 m (384-420 ft) Website. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Help Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/24) Today's temps were steady at -0.710 after rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 10 to See chart here - link. US Dept of Commerce Summer - Waist to chest high. Hawaii's North Shore had sets at waist to chest high on the sets and clean and lined up but inconsistent and weak. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020. high seas forecast south pacific issued: 04/30/2023 05:02:51 pm hst. showers early in the morning. Meteorological Overview TUE The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 190 and 13 seconds from 290. Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Fri (2/25) building from 5.6 ft @ 18 secs at sunrise (10 ft) to 7.2-7.9 ft @ 17-18 secs late afternoon (13.0 ft). North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (5/1) at sunrise holding through the day at 8.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (10 ft) and pretty windblown and mostly shadowed in the SF Bay Area. Wednesday the 10th into Thursday the 11th could see the next southern hemisphere ground swell from this system that should break off Antarctica in a few days (model by FNMOC): Size so far is coming in at chest+ with swell angled from 195 and periods 16 seconds. There are also options to display live wind observations from ships, wave buoys and weather stations on the wave maps in the Pacific-Ocean region. In the evening fetch was fading from 30 kts approaching the dateline with seas 29 ft near at 40N 173E. On Thursday (2/24) the jet was consolidated pushing firmly east off Japan on the 36N latitude line with winds to 190 kts pushing flat over the dateline to 155W not forming any troughs though still supportive of gale development just based on wind speeds alone. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days. You are not a drop in the ocean. chance of showers. 000 fzps40 phfo 010302 hsfsp high seas forecast national weather service honolulu hi 0530 utc mon may 01 2023 superseded by next issuance in 6 hours seas given as significant wave height.which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Coastal waters from Florence Oregon to Point St. George California and westward 60 nm. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit. Global-Pacific wave (swell) map for surfers, windsurfers and sailors showing open ocean wave size, wave period and wave energy. The compact winds around the center may temper the size for other locations around the Pacific, but the storm's extra-long tail ensures there's a long run of swell. : See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page). Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Wave Height. Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. N wind 10 to 20 kt. //-->, S. Hemi Waking Up South America ; Islands ; Sign In Try Premium for free. Something to monitor. Current Conditions 1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with Kelvin Wave #2 in-flight and Kevin Wave #3 developing now. WED NIGHT Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead). Swell fading Mon (5/8) from 1.2 ft @ 13 secs (1.5 ft). Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E) Buoys in the outer waters were running 5'. Also called 'Background' swell. Wind waves 3 to 4 ftbuilding to 4 to 6 ft after The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations). At Santa Cruz surf was waist high or so on the sets and clean and soft. TONIGHT The two have conspired to produce a thick morning marine layer with burn-off not likely at the coast today, with max beach temps struggling to reach the low 60s. Pacific Decadal Oscillation TAO Array: (2/24) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was retrograding to 168E. Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs. Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East, CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link. Wave forecast maps for Australia Bass Strait Bass Strait is a notorious stretch of water between Victoria and Tasmania. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 7 ft at 11 seconds. Wind waves Summer - up to waist high swell. Swell NW Eglise Notre Dame. IRI Consensus Plume: The Feb 18, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.704 degs today and have bottomed out. Swell Direction: 192 degrees, North CA: Dribbles on Mon (5/1) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell NW 4 to 5 ft. PZZ370-011600 South to southwest fetch is to be building in coverage in the evening at 30-35 kts over a large area with seas 29 ft at 44.25S 137.25W aimed northeast. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 3N and above over the entire North Pacific. Swell is pushing towards California. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. W wind 5 kt. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/30) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Sunday, April 30, 2023 On Thursday (2/24) locally generated windswell was hitting California and Hawaii with remnant Dateline swell fading in Hawaii too. Swell fading some on Mon (5/8) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). webmaster.ndbc@noaa.gov, Disclaimer But deep cool waters were along the immediate coast of Peru. SoCal Forecast Gales associated with this system are shown locked in down the 300-320 degree directional band relative to the islands driving seas into the 25-30 ft range. First though I wanted to note that there is a chance of seeing NW wind swell in the mix Wednesday the 10th and Thursday the 11th from a rare, split-jetstream pattern that'd put a windy leg of the jetstream along the SoCal coast (model by FNMOC): This jet-split pattern can happen when the jetstream rams into a large area of high pressure, which in this case would encompass most of the continental U.S. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). In autumn and and early spring the Santa Ana wind brings weeks of offshore conditions. West facing breaks were mostly waist high. Swell NW 8 to 9 ft at 9 seconds. 2 Finals Swell Coming From the North - Then It's All Down South. Protected breaks were near chest high and fairly clean but with some light texture on it and closed out and soft. Beyond 72 hours another trough is forecast developing over the Southeast Pacific on Fri (5/5) being fed by 130 kt winds and lifting north on Sat (5/6) offering good support for gale development. Swell holding Sun (5/7) at 2.1 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Wind waves 2 ft or Your heart knows the way. Swell NW National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration View accurate wind, swell and tide forecasts for any GPS point. Satellite Imagery PZZ350-011600 The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). You can customize the wave and wind maps with overlays for wind arrows, pressure and general weather for surfing. Background swell was hitting Hawaii from undetermined source. On Tues AM southwest winds to be lifting northeast at 30-35 kts over a solid area with seas 21 ft at 55S 154W aimed northeast. Crime against visiting surfers is common and becoming increasingly so, especially in the north. 218 AM PDT Mon May 1 2023, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast rising to +1.20 degs in July and +1.85 degs in Nov. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. Then had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022. Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm Thursday the 11th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing spots, but NW wind swell is in question. Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/29): A neutral trend was along the coasts of Chile and Peru as Kelvin Wave #1 starts fading there. On Mon AM (2/21) the gale started plodding east producing westerly winds at 45 kts over a broad area with a core at 50-55 kts and seas building to 34 ft at 39.75N 152E aimed east. 00:37. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like'). Control the animation using the slide bar found beneath the weather map. of more interest is swell pushing east originating from a broad system that developed just off the Kuril Islands Mon-Tues (2/22) producing 39 ft seas aimed east then dissipating before reaching the dateline. TUE showers and steep seas will continue into Tuesday, along with Swell is tracking towards Hawaii. Rain. Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours. Weather Outlook: But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. MON SW wind 5 ktbacking to SE after midnight.

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